The Undervalued Screen ● uvs.code900.net Issue of 15 July 2026

Ten stocks the market has marked cheap

A ledger of names screening below fair value on the day’s analyst metrics — ordered from steadier large-caps down to higher-risk, higher-upside bets. Cheap is a verdict, not a fact.

Market context — Morningstar, 10 Jul 2026

−5%
US market vs. fair value
35%
covered stocks undervalued
23%
covered stocks overvalued
Tech · Health
most undervalued sectors

Of 879 US-listed stocks Morningstar covers: 35% undervalued, 42% fairly valued, 23% overvalued. Technology, communication services and healthcare screen cheapest heading into Q3.

How these were screened

This isn’t a hand-picked list — it’s the output of quantitative value screens. A screen is a filter, not a recommendation. Names clear tests like these before appearing.

The value screen

Fair-value / fundamentals

  1. Lynch upside > 20% — fair value = EPS × 5-yr earnings growth (capped 5–25%), vs. price
  2. Price-to-book below 1.5
  3. P/E below both the industry and the company’s own 3-yr average
  4. Debt-to-equity below 0.5 — financial resilience
  5. 3-yr revenue growth > 20% — screens out merely declining businesses
  6. Positive analyst ratings — external validation

The large-cap screen

S&P 500 filter

  1. P/E under 20, vs. industry peers
  2. Price-to-book below 1.0
  3. Debt-to-equity under 100% — avoids leverage-driven cheapness
  4. Dividend sanity-check — a high yield can flag undervaluation or trouble ahead

The Ledger — 10 names

Model upside is the Lynch fair-value gap — theoretical, not a forecast. Read it inversely: the larger the figure, the more skepticism is already priced in. Large-caps are peer-relative calls without a Lynch figure.

1
Alphabet GOOGL

Trades below the tech-peer average despite roughly 22% year-over-year revenue growth.

~27×P/E
peer-relativeno Lynch fig.
Lower risk
2
Cigna Group CI

Priced far below the health-insurer average of ~18× forward earnings.

~9× fwdP/E
peer-relativeno Lynch fig.
Lower risk
3
Arch Capital ACGL

Conservative balance sheet actively managing underwriting risk; higher rates lift income on its float; refinancing $2B of debt.

~7×P/E
+236%model upside
Moderate
4
Trip.com TCOM

Five straight years of revenue growth; EPS tripled 2023–2025 on the Asia-Pacific travel recovery; AI-led expansion.

~7×P/E
+309%model upside
Moderate
5
UP Fintech TIGR

EPS grew from $0.21 to $0.93 (2023–2025); AI-agent expansion; $50M buyback approved.

~7×P/E
+237%model upside
Higher risk
6
Central Puerto CEPU

Argentina’s top power producer; high margins; secured a 29-year hydro contract with USD-protected revenue through 2055.

~8×P/E
+229%model upside
Higher risk
7
Caledonia Mining CMCL

Free cash flow above $40M/yr since the gold surge (gold > $4,000/oz); a development mine approved for 2028.

~7×P/E
+274%model upside
Higher risk
8
Equinox Gold EQX

Merger creates ~$1.4B free cash flow; paid down $990M of debt; lower-risk Canadian operations after an asset sale.

~14×P/E
+72%model upside
Higher risk
9
Chicago Atlantic BDC LIEN

15.8% portfolio yield and a ~13.6% dividend; zero non-accruing loans since Q4 2024 — high credit quality in middle-market lending.

~7×P/E
+276%model upside
Higher risk
10
Jiayin Group JFIN

Net income up 45.4% in 2025 and expanding into Indonesia and Mexico — yet priced at ~1× earnings, the market flatly disbelieves it will last.

~1×P/E
+2,435%model upside
Higher risk

Read the biggest number as the loudest warning

Jiayin Group’s +2,435% “upside” isn’t a price target — it’s the model screaming. A rock-bottom multiple means the market is pricing the stock as if earnings are about to collapse, growth notwithstanding. Outsized modeled upside tracks outsized doubt: it measures how much has to go right, not how much you’ll make.

Before you act — the cautions

This is information, not investment advice. “Undervalued” is an opinion produced by a screen, not a guarantee — a cheap-looking multiple often reflects real risks the market is already pricing in. Figures are approximate and current as of the issue date; verify live prices and do your own diligence before acting.

Sources — The Investing Engineer · Forbes · Morningstar · NerdWallet